PERANG DAGANG ERA DONALD TRUMP SEBAGAI KEBIJAKAN LUAR NEGERI ADAPTIF CONVULSIVE AMERIKA SERIKAT
Abstract
Abstract:
The U.S-China trade war began after U.S under Donald Trump era raised import tariffs on thousands of China’s products. The policy was retaliated by China with a similar policy. The trade war took place in three rounds starting from July 2018 to September 2019. This paper seeks to analyze factors that influence U.S to issue such a policy triggering the trade war. The article adopted theory of adaptive foreign policy model. Following this theory, authors argued that U.S policy of raising import tariffs that triggered the trade war was a convulsively adaptive foreign policy reflecting significant changes in both external and internal environment. First, it can be seen from External Change Variable, namely, the emergence of China as a new superpower. Second, Structural Change variable showed U.S political structure change from Democrats to Republicans along with Trump's victory in the 2016 Presidential Election. Finally, the leadership factor was Trump's negative perception of China before serving as president.
Keywords: trade war, convulsively adaptive, external change, structural change, leadership factor.
Abstrak:
Perang dagang AS dan Tiongkok diawali dengan kebijakan AS di era Donald Trump yang menaikkan tarif impor atas ribuan produk asal Tiongkok. Kebijakan tersebut dibalas oleh Tiongkok dengan kebijakan yang serupa. Perang dagang tersebut berlangsung dalam tiga ronde dari Juli 2018 hingga September 2019. Tulisan ini mencoba menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi AS mengeluarkan kebijakan tersebut sehingga memicu perang dagang. Penulis menggunakan teori model kebijakan luar negeri adaptif. Berdasarkan teori tersebut, penulis menemukan bahwa kebijakan AS menaikkan tarif impor yang memicu perang dagang merupakan kebijakan luar negeri adaptif convulsive yang berarti terdapat perubahan signifikan baik di lingkungan ekstenal maupun internal. Pertama, dilihat dari variabel External Change yaitu kemunculan Tiongkok sebagai negara adidaya baru. Kedua, dilihat dari variabel Structural Change yaitu perubahan struktur politik AS dari Partai Demokrat ke Partai Republik seiring dengan kemenangan Trump pada Pilpres 2016. Terakhir, yakni leadership factor berupa persepsi negatif Trump terhadap Tiongkok sebelum menjadi presiden.
Kata Kunci: perang dagang, adaptif convulsive, external change, structural change, leadership factor.
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